Calling Out Super Tuesday

My voting predictions for Super Tuesday are listed below but first, I’ll digress briefly on another subject. There’s been a lot of debate lately as to which candidate will win the Republican nomination and which candidate is best positioned to take us to the WH. My vote – while a deviation from my earlier posts – is that the McMan can, and will, win both. I thought his nomination for the party would be shut down by the far right – enough to kill his bid and I thought he would have difficulty in the general elections with left leaning liberals and everyone to the right of the conservative moderate.

So my opinion with respect to his chances – obviously - has done a complete 180. Call me fickle.

Now will I vote for McCain? As yet undecided. Generally speaking, I like McCain better than Romney but I'm having difficulty getting past some of his more liberal positions on issues where my views are most conservative. For months now I've been struggling between two voting paths and I'm hoping that at some point lightning will strike and I'll know which way to go. Question is: Do I vote for the candidate that most reflects my conservative values (which, at this point is Romney) or do I vote for the candidate that has the best chance of putting a Republican in the White House...?

AAHHHHH. Dilemma.

Here’s my thinking on Romney: Perhaps in 2012 Romney will have a name and an image strong enough that people – conservative and liberal – will feel comfortable with what he stands for. Knowing exactly where your future President stands on key issues is critical to winning over moderate voters and independents. It's precisely why GWB won - whether you count the first time around or the second. Maybe you liked him..maybe you didn't, you may or may not have agreed with his politics but in the end, a lot of people felt comfort in the fact that they just knew where he sat on every issue. The Bush brand image was a strong one. For Romney though, there was a lot of confusion that surrounded a good chunk of his campaign and a lot of that quickly evolved into a profound dislike of the man - even after the confusion passed-over. And I think those sentiments lingered just long enough to kill his chances here. In another four years maybe he’ll have better luck with folks on both sides of the isle similarly to the way McCain's image has evolved with general voters since campaigning against George Jr. back in 02.

With Romney out of the picture for '08, that leaves us with the McMan. If he wins the Republican nomination, I just hope he’s wise enough (and Republican enough) to elect a running mate who will serve to strengthen the conservative platform, not dilute it-- further.

With that said, here are my turnout predictions…

McCain
Alabama
Arizona
Delaware
Georgia
Minnesota
Missouri
New Jersey
Tennessee
New York
Oklahoma
Montana

Mitt Romney
Alaska
Connecticut The independent vote will make it a close draw between McCain & Romney
Illinois A strong union state; Pro-growth policies & economic issues will position Mitt for a win
Massachusetts
North Dakota
West Virginia
Utah

Mike Huckabee
Arkansas Eventhough he's really out of the running - the guy's gotta win his own state


I think I got all the Republican primary states but if I missed one lemme know.

Bush's Final State of the Union

If you happened to catch last night’s televised State of the Union address then, like me, you probably sat through it with some mixed emotions. From Republican cheerleaders thundering in unison to Democrats grumbling ass-in-seat in unison, to Pelosi’s emotion-less “on-queue” support, to Bush’s misplaced “State of the Union” address - I didn’t hate it but I also didn’t love it.

I yawned through many parts, laughed hysterically at others (more on that later), and throughout the whole thing (and with every time I watch these things) thought – the audience shouldn’t be allowed to stand up and applause during the speech but for the few non-partisan “long live America” type sentiments. Not much has changed with this practice but for the sake of unity (or at minimum some semblance of unity) – this just needs to stop.

Overall I liked the speech itself but felt it could have been more inspiring, a little fresher, a little quicker.

What I liked:
· I’m all about free trade and renewing trade agreements, ignoring lame-duck earmarks (though I’m more in favor of getting rid of earmarks all together), lowering taxes and offering a permanent tax relief

· I liked what Bush had to say about securing our borders (though admittedly, as much as I like hearing it I recognize how many times I’ve heard it) and protecting America from terrorist threats. On the latter, I was particularly proud when Bush spoke to two different occasions where attempted terrorist attacks on a Los Angeles high-rise and a domestic passenger flight were thwarted. I always felt that the Bush administration should have [I hate to use the word exploit but..] exploited these successes more during his administration. The same idiots who groan and bitch about airport security also go on tirades about poor homeland security and a national defense team that doesn’t do or accomplish anything. As if they could float this boat better. Naivety and stupidity demand reproach or at least a good “here’s what you don’t know” speech.

· While I’m on the fence about key aspects of Bush foreign policy - I like everything he had to say about bringing peace to the Middle East. Btw: Did anyone else notice the loud hush that fell over the left after Bush asked congress to continue funding the interception of communication between terrorist groups. Yikes.


What I Didn’t Like
· I don’t like any policy, or program pushing the words “faith based”. While conservative, like my liberal counterparts I do not like religion injected into politics.

· I have mixed emotions about the U.S. being the torch-bearer for peace throughout the world but I think it’s an honorable charge.


MUST be Tongue-in-Cheek:

"Just as we trust Americans with their own money"

Hahahahahaaaa.

"The actions of the 110th Congress will affect the security and prosperity of our Nation long after this session has ended. "

Blasted! The 110th Congress has proven to be ineffective and perfectly useless. It’s laughable! If voters aren’t already regretting putting democrats at the helm of congress, no doubt they’ll feel it ten fold if they put a democrat in the White House. *cringe* A frightening and painful truth.

"And let us show them that Republicans and Democrats can compete for votes and cooperate for results at the same time."

Er?

"We believe that the most reliable guide for our country is the collective wisdom of ordinary citizens."

Ok, I’m one of the handful of people who actually like Bush but including this blurb was just foolhardy considering the overwhelming sentiment that Bush not only did not listen to majority voters but that he blatantly disregarded their position and trudged forward anyway. *This administration does not base it’s actions on Gallup polls and approval ratings*

I for one actually applaud him for this, to some extent. I mean, do people really know what’s in their best interest? I’m not saying that Bush does but at least he doesn’t kowtow when it comes to fickle voter sentiments. And let’s face it, there are a lot of stupid people out there. Think of all the liberals…!


For your reading entertainment, or, if you didn't catch it last night, see Bush's final State of the Union address here...

It IS a Buyer's Market...

Just a brief comment on this Ad Age article...

The bust in the housing market hit a lot of folks’ monumentally hard and positioned thousands of home owners for a major fiscal crisis. I understand. But as the housing market cycles through and out of this recession it’s important that we not only do what we can to get through it - but we need to remain focused on the big picture. What does that mean..it means that even in a major housing slump, there is at some point - a good investment choice in the making if you take advantage. We [in the financial services world and as investors] always need to ask the question “what does the market look like now and what does that mean for [me] the investor”.

The buyer’s reality: when considering whether or not to buy a house for the long term – now IS a good time to buy. Prices are low, financial loan requirements are stricter because of the subprime crash and general housing recession, and so long as you accurately and fairly adjust your income to what you realistically can afford in mortgage costs – now, and probably for the next 4-6 months - is the best time to buy if you’re thinking long term. Certain areas will always be high cost areas regardless of where the general market stands (i.e., areas in California and New York). However, if you wait until next year as many people recommend prices may be up high enough that you just might regret having waited.

Two obvious points you need to ask yourself when considering the purchase of a new home:
What can I afford?
What am I qualified to buy?

For those of you who don't know who I am or what I do - let me be clear I do not work in the mortgage/housing business, etc. But regardless, I do think that we need to stop toiling over the housing crisis and start focusing on the opportunities resultant to it. Scaring people with the notion that any claim supporting a buyers market is yet another way of duping potential consumers into greater debt - is just irresponsible. If you're thinking of buying long-term (8+ years), do the math with your finances and do some research; There are great deals to be had and for the next 4-6 months.

Religious Exaltations and Brain Anomalies

Do you feel that He is with you and watching over you every day of your life?

Do you walk through life feeling His divine presence?

Does He speak to you; Or through you to communicate His message?

If you are one of the [potentially] millions who would answer Yes to these questions, hold onto your jockies – it’s not Him; It’s You.

This article in Scientific American [thanks Mom] discusses potential correlations between temporal lobe anomalies (or abnormal brain activity) and claimed experiences of spiritual epiphanies. In sum: there is evidence to suggest that “experience and belief in God are merely the results of electrical anomalies in the human brain” and that spiritual sensations – feelings that you are not alone, that there is a divine presence that surrounds you, and other spiritual wonders – can in fact be manipulated and/or artificially induced to create or enhance a “religious experience”.

God, is nothing more mystical than the sum of psychological conditioning of the most common religious rituals paired with abnormal electrical impulses traversing the pathways of the human brain.

Hmm. OK.

For life, love or limb - Whether you are a life-long believer or newly transformed.. any emotionally charged moment will produce abnormal brain activity, including the need to believe in something greater than yourself. Sadness, grief, loneliness, love and happiness (and the fear of losing them both) are all fixtures of electrical impulses that talk to the brain. And so naturally Science can prove where and how feelings of the mystical can materialize in the human body – just as mathematical theorems can prove that you actually can hold a 5-ton elephant over the edge of a 5-story building with nothing but a paper clip and an inch of thread (or was it a daisy??).

But we know better.

The point is - it's an interesting perspective and I love to dissect it's possibilities but in the end, Science is not proof.

As an agnostic I can neither accept nor deny the notion that abnormal brain activity is at the heart of every individual's spiritual or religious experience. I need more data. But there's an obvious correlation no doubt and in most circumstances this explanation is perhaps the most likely. After all, the simplest explanation tends to be the right one. A Divine experience or are you just really, really happy and creating your own sensations of the divine...

Either way, the idea does bring up interesting thoughts about my own personal experiences. There have been more than a few fragile moments in my life - moments filled with sadness or trepidation or uncertainty - and in those moments I’ve found myself looking up in the hopes that there exists something in the mystical, something greater than myself, that has the power to guide the directions of my fate. *Oh pretty please* And in many of those moments, I’ve felt it. That sense of absolute truth. That sense that in this moment there can be no doubt. And in all honesty, those moments have always given me the greatest comfort and peace.

Flash forward to the here and now and well, maybe it wasn’t Him; maybe it was Me. Did I feel the divine or did my own heightened sense of need create in my mind, the feeling of the Divine? When people go to Church and they reach that sense of connected peace - is it because they truly feel the presence of God and the mystical or is it because being surrounded by thoughts of love and happiness in fact changes our brain patterns and the electrical impulses going to and from the brain, thereby inducing the feeling of a "religious experience"..?

Seeing is believing? Or is believing, seeing?

I don't know but as I've said before it makes for interesting conversation. Probably the more relevant question is, if you feel happier and more fulfilled in your life, does it really matter? You decide.

Who Will Win the Republican Primary in South Carolina?

South Carolina's Republican debate airs in less than an hour and I am anxious for the fun to begin. With Huckabee and McCain taking Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively, the competition for Republican party leaders is still wide open, positioning South Carolina and Michigan as the two make or break states leading up to Super Tuesday...

Q: Which candidates have the greatest winning advantage in South Carolina?

Huckabee and McCain.

Which of the two will win? I know a lot of folks are predicting a double digit win for Huckabee over McCain but I think McCain will come out victorious by a slim majority of 1-2 points. SC has historically been a heavy debate ground for foreign policy issues - an area that McCain owns. The two big roadblocks for McCain I think will be a) his stance on immigration (less conservative than his counterparts) and b) whether or not his relationship with the Christian-right during (and since) his 2000 presidential run will overwhelm his chances. Can the veteran vote sustain him? Likely not but I think the adversarial relationship with evangelicals has mended enough to get him the votes he needs from the conservative-middle.

Q: A loss in South Carolina will throw which candidates out of the running?

Huckabee – He’ll likely get the majority of poor and minority voters but if he can’t win in a heavily evangelical state, I think his momentum will come to a stark halt unless he finishes with a very close second - less than 2 points. Also, Huckabee has been pushing more mainstream politics lately so the question is, will he change his tune to win-over the evangelical base and if he does, how will that impact the primaries – a state that is far more representative of the national aggregate of the demographic and psychographic makeup of voters.

Fred Thompson– According to some, he’s done well here in several initial voter polls but his turnout votes were shameful in Iowa and New Hampshire. His campaign has little or no momentum right now; If his campaign doesn’t get the momentum it needs with a win tonight, he’s out. Thompson needs to win South Carolina. If he doesn’t win South Carolina he has no chance of finishing in the top three in MI. He's been touted as the only "true conservative Republican" and I think we're really going to see him ride that wave during tonight's debate.

Mitt Romney – I don’t think Romney has a chance of winning Michigan which means he also needs a win in South Carolina. I don’t care what the experts say – the fact that Mitt was born in MI doesn’t make up for the 40 years he hasn’t lived there. Mitt has the funding to continue his campaign even if he doesn’t win SC and he has said that he has no plans of dropping out of the race before Super Tuesday, but, without a win in any of the first 4 primaries I don’t think he has much of a chance going forward. When the votes are all accounted for I think Romney will place a distant 4th or 5th in South Carolina, defeating only Ron Paul.

And finally...

Here are my final tallies:

McCain
Huckabee (-2)
Thompson (-6)
Giuliani (-6)
Romney (-11)

Thoughts?

Gloom and Doom to the Left; Happy and Happier to the Right

Just a short, trouble-making blurb today... **insert impish grin**

Interesting post on Rich Kaarlgard’s blog today about whether or not folks on the political left tend to exhibit more of the ‘doom and gloom’ behavior of life versus us Republicans who, naturally, tend to cruise through life brimming with contentment and joy.

Chuckle. Chuckle.

Ok, maybe I’m over-paraphrasing but results from a recent Gallup Poll did suggest that liberal in America tend to be unhappier than their conservative counterparts. True? False? Shocking? Expected?

Some might try to suggest that liberals are unhappier because of the current political state of things (i.e., all liberals hate Bush; republican governments can shoot themselves that sort of thing); Some might even suggest it’s due to the economy, the mortgage crisis, the rise and fall of the Hershey conglomerate…

Personally, I think it’s because all liberal party leaders are essentially mindless populists who, in reality, have very little to offer but a lot of useless talk and banter. And deep (deep) inside, liberals know this but they're too proud to convert. When you have to publicly support people like Hillary, Barack, and Dean...why would party constituents have anything to look forward to? It makes sense doesn't it..?

Yea, here's what I say,

To all the un-happy, un-content, un-satisfied liberals in America (which I suspect is a large majority of you)....Come on over and join the happy side of life!

Republican-bashers come hither....you know you want to ;=)

hAHAA!