Who Will Win the Republican Primary in South Carolina?

South Carolina's Republican debate airs in less than an hour and I am anxious for the fun to begin. With Huckabee and McCain taking Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively, the competition for Republican party leaders is still wide open, positioning South Carolina and Michigan as the two make or break states leading up to Super Tuesday...

Q: Which candidates have the greatest winning advantage in South Carolina?

Huckabee and McCain.

Which of the two will win? I know a lot of folks are predicting a double digit win for Huckabee over McCain but I think McCain will come out victorious by a slim majority of 1-2 points. SC has historically been a heavy debate ground for foreign policy issues - an area that McCain owns. The two big roadblocks for McCain I think will be a) his stance on immigration (less conservative than his counterparts) and b) whether or not his relationship with the Christian-right during (and since) his 2000 presidential run will overwhelm his chances. Can the veteran vote sustain him? Likely not but I think the adversarial relationship with evangelicals has mended enough to get him the votes he needs from the conservative-middle.

Q: A loss in South Carolina will throw which candidates out of the running?

Huckabee – He’ll likely get the majority of poor and minority voters but if he can’t win in a heavily evangelical state, I think his momentum will come to a stark halt unless he finishes with a very close second - less than 2 points. Also, Huckabee has been pushing more mainstream politics lately so the question is, will he change his tune to win-over the evangelical base and if he does, how will that impact the primaries – a state that is far more representative of the national aggregate of the demographic and psychographic makeup of voters.

Fred Thompson– According to some, he’s done well here in several initial voter polls but his turnout votes were shameful in Iowa and New Hampshire. His campaign has little or no momentum right now; If his campaign doesn’t get the momentum it needs with a win tonight, he’s out. Thompson needs to win South Carolina. If he doesn’t win South Carolina he has no chance of finishing in the top three in MI. He's been touted as the only "true conservative Republican" and I think we're really going to see him ride that wave during tonight's debate.

Mitt Romney – I don’t think Romney has a chance of winning Michigan which means he also needs a win in South Carolina. I don’t care what the experts say – the fact that Mitt was born in MI doesn’t make up for the 40 years he hasn’t lived there. Mitt has the funding to continue his campaign even if he doesn’t win SC and he has said that he has no plans of dropping out of the race before Super Tuesday, but, without a win in any of the first 4 primaries I don’t think he has much of a chance going forward. When the votes are all accounted for I think Romney will place a distant 4th or 5th in South Carolina, defeating only Ron Paul.

And finally...

Here are my final tallies:

McCain
Huckabee (-2)
Thompson (-6)
Giuliani (-6)
Romney (-11)

Thoughts?

Gloom and Doom to the Left; Happy and Happier to the Right

Just a short, trouble-making blurb today... **insert impish grin**

Interesting post on Rich Kaarlgard’s blog today about whether or not folks on the political left tend to exhibit more of the ‘doom and gloom’ behavior of life versus us Republicans who, naturally, tend to cruise through life brimming with contentment and joy.

Chuckle. Chuckle.

Ok, maybe I’m over-paraphrasing but results from a recent Gallup Poll did suggest that liberal in America tend to be unhappier than their conservative counterparts. True? False? Shocking? Expected?

Some might try to suggest that liberals are unhappier because of the current political state of things (i.e., all liberals hate Bush; republican governments can shoot themselves that sort of thing); Some might even suggest it’s due to the economy, the mortgage crisis, the rise and fall of the Hershey conglomerate…

Personally, I think it’s because all liberal party leaders are essentially mindless populists who, in reality, have very little to offer but a lot of useless talk and banter. And deep (deep) inside, liberals know this but they're too proud to convert. When you have to publicly support people like Hillary, Barack, and Dean...why would party constituents have anything to look forward to? It makes sense doesn't it..?

Yea, here's what I say,

To all the un-happy, un-content, un-satisfied liberals in America (which I suspect is a large majority of you)....Come on over and join the happy side of life!

Republican-bashers come hither....you know you want to ;=)

hAHAA!