Who Will Win the Republican Primary in South Carolina?
South Carolina's Republican debate airs in less than an hour and I am anxious for the fun to begin. With Huckabee and McCain taking Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively, the competition for Republican party leaders is still wide open, positioning South Carolina and Michigan as the two make or break states leading up to Super Tuesday...
Q: Which candidates have the greatest winning advantage in
Huckabee and McCain.
Which of the two will win? I know a lot of folks are predicting a double digit win for Huckabee over McCain but I think McCain will come out victorious by a slim majority of 1-2 points. SC has historically been a heavy debate ground for foreign policy issues - an area that McCain owns. The two big roadblocks for McCain I think will be a) his stance on immigration (less conservative than his counterparts) and b) whether or not his relationship with the Christian-right during (and since) his 2000 presidential run will overwhelm his chances. Can the veteran vote sustain him? Likely not but I think the adversarial relationship with evangelicals has mended enough to get him the votes he needs from the conservative-middle.
Q: A loss in South Carolina will throw which candidates out of the running?
Huckabee – He’ll likely get the majority of poor and minority voters but if he can’t win in a heavily evangelical state, I think his momentum will come to a stark halt unless he finishes with a very close second - less than 2 points. Also, Huckabee has been pushing more mainstream politics lately so the question is, will he change his tune to win-over the evangelical base and if he does, how will that impact the primaries – a state that is far more representative of the national aggregate of the demographic and psychographic makeup of voters.
Fred Thompson– According to some, he’s done well here in several initial voter polls but his turnout votes were shameful in Iowa and New Hampshire. His campaign has little or no momentum right now; If his campaign doesn’t get the momentum it needs with a win tonight, he’s out. Thompson needs to win South Carolina. If he doesn’t win South Carolina he has no chance of finishing in the top three in MI. He's been touted as the only "true conservative Republican" and I think we're really going to see him ride that wave during tonight's debate.
Mitt Romney – I don’t think Romney has a chance of winning Michigan which means he also needs a win in South Carolina. I don’t care what the experts say – the fact that Mitt was born in MI doesn’t make up for the 40 years he hasn’t lived there. Mitt has the funding to continue his campaign even if he doesn’t win SC and he has said that he has no plans of dropping out of the race before Super Tuesday, but, without a win in any of the first 4 primaries I don’t think he has much of a chance going forward. When the votes are all accounted for I think Romney will place a distant 4th or 5th in South Carolina, defeating only Ron Paul.
And finally...
Here are my final tallies:
McCain
Huckabee (-2)
Thompson (-6)
Giuliani (-6)
Romney (-11)
Labels:
News and Politics
16 comments:
I agree with your 1 & 2, except in reverse order. I expect it to be close, but I think the Huckster will win.
I'll difer with you on Romney. I expect the Robo-candidate to come in a solid third. My "upset" special is Ron Paul beating out Thompson and Rudy, who will bring up the back end.
But what about Florida? It's one week before super Tuesday and has more deligates that SC and MI combined. Show Florida some love!
Hmmm..interesting tallies. Can't wait to see how the numbers play out!
FL is definitely a very important state but I don't think all of the candidates will make it that far. I think you'll see at least 2 candidates dropping out of the running after the SC and MI primaries (unless the numbers are extremely close and all 4 primaries have different winners - but that's highly unlikely).
That said, I think Giuliani will win FL followed by Huckabee then McCain. You?
...with Huckabee and McCain finishing a very, very close race
Tallahassee called and... well maybe you should send some chocolates.
LOL...
Harr-harr.
btw: which is more politically correct - white chocolate, somethin nutty or just plain dark..
You might expect Thompson to halt his candidacy after SC, but that would entail a lot of effort: typing up press releases and such...
Romney is prepared to self-finance and expects to do well in California and the NE.
Rudy has similar expectations, but obviously doesn't have the Mitt-sters money, so he needs to have something to show by February 6th.
My favorite Republican (Ron Paul) has a low cost campaign and enough money to keep going until the convention.
McCain is the guy who needs to rack up some results before Super Tuesday in order to raise some money.
In the south, you should always go for something with pecans. :-)
In Florida, I think you are correct: the win to Rudy. But I think the Huckster will place a strong second. (LOL) I see Huckabee doing well all across the south.
RE: Thompson - now THAT'S funny stuff...
RE: McCain - I think he'll win Michigan. He's done well there historically; I think it will be an easy win for him. I don't think that a loss in SC would have any impact on his winning MI.
RE: Ron Paul - I canNOT believe he's your favorite. He's such a dinkhead! Did you watch tonight's debate? All rhetoric; no real actionable plans...he's just WEIRD.
Remember, I don't think any of them would be good for the country. (McCain and Romney would be better presidents than GWB, but that's a low bar). I like Ron Paul for two reasons. First, he has a distinct message (with a constituency that wants to hear it - btw, I don't agree with much of that message) and he's using the campaign to voice that message -- or trying to if the moderator would treat him like a candidate -- that's the way it should work, I admire that! Second, and most importantly, he's great comic relief!
huckabee
tompson
romney
mccain
guiliani
ron paul
not so close between huck and tom-tom
Crispy - for which State are you predicting? SC?
Crispy, where've you been buddy? According to the latest polls, Huck is way ahead of the pack followed by McCain, Romney, Thompson, and Giuliani. With a resounding "duh", Ron Paul maintains his solid grip on 6th. RonPaul4President will be sadly disappointed but happy to hear Paul has a stronghold in at least one area of this race.
dan, my numbers were for south carolina. my placement of mccain appears to be off but the primaries aren't until the 19th so...there is time.
Much as I hate to admit it, Deanna had the best projections.
And Fred actually took the time to withdraw from the race - surprises for me all around!
Post a Comment