You Can't Knock High-Hopes

I got a good chuckle out of this businessweek article covering this years LA auto-show design challenge. The topic - where will auto design and functionality be in the year 2057.

Some of the concept themes (I highlighted the key words I thought were most interesting)

• Fluid designs and materials that can be reconfigured into different
"modes" (i.e., compact and maneuverable when commuting/sleek and aerodynamic so you can zip right through that L.A. traffic)

• Artificial Intelligence to allow vehicles to be operated with little or
no input from the user;

• Advanced fuel systems using multiple energy sources to achieve excellent
economy and power while minimizing or indeed reversing environmental damage;

• "Organic" design that mimics and responds to natural forms;

• Omni-directional drives instead of simple forward/reverse wheels.

These are all great, forward thinking ideas. But I say, let’s be realistic. In the year 1941, Chrysler came out with the Thunderbolt - an “idea car” that was vastly ahead of it’s time in 1941 and only six were made. Interesting from a time-warp perspective is that some of the most advanced aspects of it’s design included a fully retractable hardtop that was electronically operated from pushbuttons on the dashboard, power windows, and retracting headlamps. Flash-forward to present day where countless vehicles still don’t include power windows (fortunately not my car), you pay extra for the automatic convertible top (if it’s even an option for your convertible) and most headlamps don’t retract. Not because this technology doesn't exist obviously but for many mainstream car manufacturers, it's just not cost-effective for the offering. And the avaibility of these features has come about in a manner that I call gradual technological evolution, natural evolution.

In looking at the historical developments of our fine auto-industry over the last 50 years – I really don't think we've come 'that far' when we're talking about what's available in the mainstream. What have we really achieved - Speed? "torque-age"? fuel-efficiency? When you consider the cars that are the most innovative in design and functionality – those that truly create that divide between themselves and the cars of 1950 – you'll also find they are in the top 1% of affordability (think the Bugatti Veryon which, priced in 1999, was sitting with a pretty pricetag of 1.3 million; check out this video - thanks Michael).

If I could predict functionality of mainstream cars in the year 2057 - I could believe the use of A.I. - to a degree (i.e., like cruise control on auto-pilot - built-in movement sensors that detect moving objects in front of you and behind you, relative to distance and direction - to slow down or increase speed. That to me seems like natural technological evolution as evidenced by the last 50 years). That said, cars with an organic design that can mimic and respond to natural forms, change from compact to aerodynamic...? Sounds like technological advancement from some parallel universe - somewhere in the realm of nuclear fission; An idea car for the year 2057 - of which perhaps six will be made.

Cost-effective? Doubtful. Mainstream? Not.