October 11, 2008

The Economics of Tax Cuts versus Obama’s Plan to “Tax the Rich”

Obama’s plan is to increase taxes on those who make more than 250k per year, or rather, tax the rich folks who get richer under a Republican tax policy, while the poor get poorer. This is what the democrats sing anyway in order to tug at the emotional strings of middle America and those even less fortunate. But, let’s evaluate this tune.

  • One of the major purposes of tax cuts is to generate tax revenues – how? – by encouraging people to take their money out of tax shelters and tax-free securities and invest that money in something that will benefit the individual investor, stimulate economic growth and create jobs (i.e., investing in equity capitalization for large institutions, small businesses, startups and new enterprises, etc.). In plain speak, the people with the capital to do so – move their money into company stocks, for example.
When companies have more capital they produce more, they innovate, they expand, they reach further into the market and in turn, create more jobs for the lower and middle classes. All of these things help move our economy and our country forward. So, why didn't the Bush tax cuts move our economy forward(?) you might ask. Because good tax policies need to be part of a strong holistic economic policy package (foreign and domestic), predicated upon strong oversight and strong relationships with other foreign countries, among other things.
  • Under the great Ronald Reagan, who put forth one of the largest tax cuts amidst cries from the left of ‘tax cuts for the rich’, tax revenues increased more than they ever had with people in the largest income brackets paying not only a larger amount of taxes than before, but a higher share of all taxes than before.
Wait, the rich had the largest tax cut but then had an increase in taxes?? This doesn’t make sense(!) say the left. Sure it does. First the tax policies of Reagan, Bush (and McCain) do not cut taxes per say but rather, they cut tax rates. Second, income is not a fixed amount during economic change - whether you make 35k per year or 350k per year. Economic change does not simply affect one class of folk for the better and another class for the worse. During an economic downturn, everyone hurts. On the flip side, when economic activity is stimulated and the economy expands, and incomes and employment rise, so do tax revenues. Those in higher income brackets start bringing in more income thereby increasing the total taxes they pay as well. So, they make more and pay even more in taxes despite a tax rate cut. Simple economics.

The real test of an economic policy is whether or not it can produce a rising tide that lifts all boats (Thomas Sowel, a fellow at the Hoover Institution wrote).

Obama wants to raise dividend and all capital gains taxes on those who make 250k or more. First, I don’t know if this is per person or per household but 250k per year certainly does not make one wealthy particularly since most people have to work their way up to that point after many years of hard work and paying off debts (i.e., school loans, business loans, children through college, etc.).

Liberals say that these tax increases do not and will not affect lower income families. Really? I beg to differ. In simplistic terms - every company needs capital. Capital equals investment. Because Obama’s plan to tax dividends penalizes equity investment like stocks and mutual funds and rewards debt investment such as bonds, company stocks are devalued and stocks are devalued relative to bonds. This goes back to the point earlier about the major purpose of tax cuts. Under Obama's plan, accountants and bankers across the country, are going to recommend individuals start moving their money away from stocks and mutual funds in order to maximize their investments. Schwab has already started advising investors as such in prep for an Obama Presidency.

The bottom line: I simply can’t believe that devaluing stock prices (and thereby US stock values) for any American business and its stock holders – is a good thing, either for economic growth and prosperity or for the middle income, working class.

20 comments:

Anonymous said...

You're on a roll with all these posts! Busy weekend??

You're correct for the most part, but I'll note that your simplistic view really is just that - very simplistic and leaves out some major details. You're talking about the trickle-down effect and history shows that with the trickle-down, our National debt always increases phenominally. THis has been the case with every Republican president who applied this same economic policy. When our National debt goes up, historically speaking, so does the CPI (consumer price index) - cost of living.

Deanna Shaw said...

If you want to reduce our National debt, let's start by cutting useless government social and welfare programs put in place and expanded upon by our democrats in congress. They are some of the most abused programs in our country not too mention the most costly for the federal budget (next to Defense spending). Social "welfare" only encourages the poor to stay poor.

Dan said...

The goal of the “Right” (CATO, Heritage, AEI, D. Shaw, etc.), is to pay fewer taxes. So based on your reasoning, we should raise tax rates. Your logic falls apart right at the start.

Deanna Shaw said...

negative. Your notion that raising taxes is off-base. If you're referring to my comment about tax revenues, historically, tax revenues have gone up with tax rate cuts, not a policy that increases taxes. You're thinking far more simplistically that you ought to and I've explained my rationale fairly clearly - though perhaps not "expertly." Second, the":Right" policy about raising taxes goes beyond "merely cutting taxes." There's a cause and effect at the center of tax cutting principles.

Dan said...

Tax cuts do not pay for themselves; nor do they generate faster growth in Federal revenue streams.

Dan said...

“Wait, the rich had the largest tax cut but then had an increase in taxes?? This doesn’t make sense(!) say the left.”

I am sorry to disappoint you, but no one on the Left demonstrates such confusion (I go to all the meetings, so I know). In fact that result is one of the ways we demonstrate that tax cutting policies create greater income disparities (see comments to your last post).

Rule of thumb: arguments that need a strawman are usually weak arguments. :-)

Deanna Shaw said...

Yes, and I can find a link to many that say just the opposite. But thanks for sharing.

Deanna Shaw said...

Sorry to break reality to you, but the left say exactly that, only it's usually in the form of 'cutting taxes is a tax cut for the rich". Most people [on the left] don't get the fact that cutting tax rates can actually increase taxes 'for the rich'. So, you must be confused about which meetings you're actually attending...

Dan said...

"I can find a link to many that say just the opposite"
-I gave you cold hard numbers, what have you got?

"the left say exactly that"
-give me names so I can bitch slap them. But I should point out that cutting tax rates for the rich is cutting their taxes. The amount they pay may increase, but their income increases even more and their effective tax rate (taxes paid / income) goes down. That is a tax cut.

Deanna Shaw said...

Well, based on your last comment, I think you can go ahead and bitch slap yourself now.... ;-)

Deanna Shaw said...

Here you go...

http://www.house.gov/jec/fiscal/tx-grwth/reagtxct/reagtxct.htm

Dan said...

The JEC paper you site does not back up your statements. The closest it comes is stating, "... after the high marginal tax rates of 1981 were cut, tax payments and the share of the tax burden borne by the top 1 percent climbed sharply."

You wrote that after Reagan's tax cuts, "... tax revenues increased more than they ever had." In the very narrow sense of only the highest 1% of incomes this may be true (or not, I haven't looked into it), but it certainly is not true for the Nation as a whole.

Deanna Shaw said...

ok. Now you're just e-mumbling....

Dan said...

Actually Deanna, sometimes economic change does affect one class for the better and another class for the worse. That happened after both the Reagan and Bush tax cuts.

Using the criteria you have set, "what policies have lifted all boats?" The answer is not cutting taxes on high incomes. Click here for the numbers.

Deanna Shaw said...

or e-babbling

Dan said...

The babbling (e- or otherwise) is all yours, my dear.

Deanna Shaw said...

right. good one ;-)

Dan said...

Obama’s capital gains proposal applies to households with more that $250,000 in income. Households earning $250,000 or more per year are among the highest income households in the United States; those wages represents at least five times the typical household income in this country. So yes, earning $250,000 or more per year does qualify one as wealthy.

The capital gains issue seems like a rather moot point these days. But on principle, the Obama plan makes a great deal of sense because raising the capital gains tax rate on large incomes has little effect on investment. It is true that capital gain tax rates that are lower than marginal income rates encourage investment (a good thing) but they also create a strong incentive for tax shelters. Basically, people try to make earned income look like capital gains. While this is a wonderful thing for tax lawyers and accountant (as well as charlatans and crooks), it introduces inefficiencies into the economy. Because of cost issues, tax shelters usually don’t make much sense for people with moderate incomes, and the investment incentive is the overriding factor. That is not the case for people with high incomes. For this population, the marginal investment effect is small while the impetus to hide income with tax shelters is large.

Anonymous said...

EZ children! I think both of you need more sunday activities.

I'm in agreement about wellfare programs but I don't necessarily think cutting funding is the answer, since it's not really the problem. I think we need to fix the root of the problem and get people off the need for wellfare.

On Republican tax policy, the IMF wrote a paper in 07 about how tax rate cuts do increase revenues by improving tax compliance.
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2008/wp0807.pdf

Here's a snippet:
The paper shows how tax rate cuts can increase revenues by improving tax compliance. The
intuition is that tax evasion has externalities: tax evaders protect each other, because they tie down limited enforcement capacity. Thus, relatively small tax rate cuts, which decrease incentives to evade taxes, can lead to increased revenues through spillovers - creating Laffer effects. Interestingly, tax rate cuts here imply increasing effective taxes. The model is consistent with what happened in Russia, and may provide basis for further thinking about tax rate cuts in other countries.

Deanna Shaw said...

Craig says: "I think we need to fix the root of the problem and get people off the need for wellfare."

Deanna says: "....heh? It IS a major root of the problem. Our existing welfare programs breed apathy while promoting a 'crutch' system."