Road to the White House – Electoral Vote Predictions
Less than one month to go until election day and it's time to make our predictions. Time sure does fly doesn't it?!?!
Here's where the EVs currently stand:
Republicans:
have 163 Electoral Votes
need 107 Electoral Votes
There are:
9 undecided States
115 Electoral Votes up for grabs
Here are my predictions.....
Best Case:
Elephants [274]: winning swing states CO (narrow, narrow margin), FL, IN, MO, NC, NV, OH, VA,
Asses!! [264]: NH
Worst Case:
Elephants [213]: winning swing states IN, MO, NC, VA
Asses!! [325]: CO, FL, NH, NV, OH
And of course, my fingers are crossed for the Best Case scenario. In fact, this will likely be my final prediction pending results of the next round of debates.
Share your thoughts and post your predictions.
Labels:
News and Politics
12 comments:
If you are hopping for best case you are going to be one sad, sad little lady.
of your undecideds--
Repukes: IN, MO
Blue bloods: everything else!
Slam-dunk for the democrats this year...
Matt, you forget the loyalties of the South!
309 dems, 229 repubs
Best case would be nice but don't think the reality looks nearly as promising. I think we'll take Florida, Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia (still questionable). Missouri looks to be going Obama's way.
btw: you listed your best and worst case. Where's your gut prediction!?
u chicken?
Did you just try to egg me on with the chicken liner..??
oh goodness.
OK. Non-best/worst case scenario...
245 R
293 D
Breakdown:
R:FL, NC, VA, IN, NV, MO
D:OH, CO
NH is officially in the blue...no surprise there.
Obviously we need all of these states to win...my feeling is, it ain't happening but I'm crossing my fingers.
the electoral vote process is a joke. remember Gore in 2000? both candidates are a joke. Obama talks a good game but i have no faith that he can accomplish what he preaches or that he's capable of being our commander in chief. old krony Mccain isn't worth the breath. he's a fumbling idiot who doesn't even know what his own healthcare plan is!
Anon give the man a break, after all, he's almost a century old!
"u chicken?"
That was all it took? Seriously? I'm constantly trying to egg you on and you ignore most of my stuff.
Here is a little insight as to where the two campaigns see the battleground.
Advertising Spending by State 9/28 - 10/4 (from the Wisconsin Advertising Project)
---- McCain - Obama
CO $0.801M - $0.980M
FL $0.657M - $2.213M***
IN $0.179M - $0.614M
IA $0.227M - $0.172M
MI $1.250M - $1.590M (remember, this was last week)
MN $0.608M - $0.121M
MO $0.193M - $0.492M
NC $0.148M - $1.236M***
NH $0.160M - $0.354M
NM $0.144M - $0.185M
NV $0.329M - $0.616M
OH $1.727M - $2.218M
PA $1.645M - $2.202M
VA $0.547M - $2.057M***
WI $0.896M - $1.189M
***It's almost as if McCain is giving up in FL, NC, and VA!
McCain has no where near the ad spend that Obama has, so he needs to choose carefully. My guess is, he will likely spend more physical time campaigning in states with less ad-spend than those with higher ad-spend.
Here are my prediction...
Obama 338 EVs
These three battleground states are already blue:
-Virginia, Nevada, & Colorado
I'm not as sure on these three, but I'll color them blue anyway:
-North Carolina, Florida, & Ohio
McCain 200 EVs with these battleground states:
-Indiana & Missouri
(New Hampshire is not a battleground state; and neither McCain in Maine nor Obama in Omaha will steal an EV)
Where do you see that CO and NV are already blue? Everything I look at says these two states are very close...?
Recent Colorado polls
-Insider Advantage 10/6: Obama +6
-Rasmussen 10/5: Obama +6
-Mason-Dixon 9/30: tied
-Rasmussen 9/28: Obama +1
-ARG* 9/24: McCain +3
-CNN 9/22: Obama +4
-PPP 9/21: Obama +7
-Quinnipiac 9/18: Obama +4
Recent Nevada polls
-Insider Advantage 10/6: Obama +2
-Research 2000 10/5: Obama +7
-Rasmussen 10/2: Obama +4
-CNN 9/29: Obama +5
-ARG* 9/28: McCain +2
*From what I have read ARG are not particularly good pollsters.
Except for the two most recent polls, the numbers aren't that bad for McCain. But even before last week the trend has been in Obama's favor. Obama has more field offices. In Colorado, for example, the Obama nation is working everywhere, minimizing McCain's advantage in conservative areas like Colorado Springs while running unchecked in liberal areas like Boulder. Because I believe McCain will soon need to cut back in smaller EV states to work on bigger prizes like Florida and Ohio, I don't see anything that will change the trends or reverse things for Johnny-boy.
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